FAQ & Methodology
How the board works, how access and alerts work, and the exact math behind every score. Nothing is hidden behind a black box.
The basics
Data & accuracy
Access, states & billing
Account, alerts & app
Scoring methodology
Every card expands to show the exact math behind its score. The base rate and every adjustment are published below with their maximum weight.
| Input | Max weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| First-3 inning HR history (base) | Base 40-95 | Play-by-play HR rate in innings 1-3 across all starts. |
| Platoon split vs pitcher hand | ±16 | Projected lineup OPS and HR/PA specifically vs LHP or RHP. |
| Season HR/9 & K/9 | ±12 | Contact suppression and strikeout ability. |
| Park factor | ±14 / +10 | 2026 HR park factors, Coors high, Oracle/loanDepot low. |
| Live weather | -10 / +8 | Temperature plus wind speed and blowing in/out orientation. |
| Recent form (last 5) | ±9 | Clean-through-3 rate and HR/9 over the last five starts. |
| Head-to-head | -8 / +5 | First-3 and overall HR history vs this specific opponent. |
| Opponent power | ±8 | Team HR totals and power ranking. |
Two scores
No-HR Score (0-100)
Probability-style rating that the starter allows zero home runs in innings 1-3. Higher is better for the No-HR prop.
HR Risk 1-7 (0-100)
Risk that a home run lands somewhere in innings 1-7. Higher is worse. Leans harder on platoon edges, park factor and opponent power because exposure is longer.
Tiers
Elite No-HR Play82-100Model's strongest No-HR plays.
Strong No-HR Play70-81Playable, favorable profile.
Proceed with Caution56-69Mixed signals — situational only.
Avoid0-55Model flags real HR risk early.
Data & refresh cadence
- Slate, lineups, stats, play-by-play: MLB Stats API. Lineups are used the moment they are posted; before that we use projected lineups and team platoon splits.
- Weather: Open-Meteo forecast at each ballpark's coordinates for scheduled first-pitch time, with wind direction mapped to the park's true orientation to determine blowing in/out.
- Park factors: 2026 rolling HR park factors.
- Cadence: the board refreshes every 5 minutes while games are upcoming, each card freezes 30 minutes before its first pitch, and the Top 2 Plays lock one hour before the first game of the day.